- Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed rate held at 7.40% on October 15, up from 6.27% a year earlier.
- On a $400,000 loan that is about $301 more a month in principal and interest.
- Massachusetts single-family sales rose 4.8% in September while condo sales fell 6.4%.
- More listings and longer market times give buyers more room to negotiate; prices are still edging up.
Mortgage rates climbed for most of the fall, and this week they stopped climbing. Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% on October 15, unchanged from the week before and up from 6.27% a year ago. That number is behind most of the questions I'm getting this month, so here is what it changes in the Merrimack Valley and Southern New Hampshire, and what it doesn't.
How fast rates moved
Eight weeks ago the same survey stood at 6.65%. It rose every week from late August, crossed 7% on September 24, and held at 7.40% this week.
Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey via FRED.
| Freddie Mac survey week | Average 30-year fixed |
|---|---|
| October 16, 2025 (a year ago) | 6.27% |
| August 20, 2026 | 6.65% |
| September 24, 2026 | 7.03% |
| October 1, 2026 | 7.28% |
| October 8, 2026 | 7.40% |
| October 15, 2026 | 7.40% |
What it does to a monthly payment
On a $400,000 loan, principal and interest at 6.27% comes to about $2,468 a month. At 7.40% it is about $2,770, roughly $301 more, before property taxes and insurance. Put the other way: the monthly payment that carried a $400,000 loan a year ago carries about $356,000 today. You can run your own numbers in the payment calculator in my buyer toolkit.
A market moving in two directions
The Massachusetts Association of REALTORS® September report shows single-family closed sales up 4.8% from a year earlier, with the median single-family price up 2.4% to $670,000. Condos went the other way: sales fell 6.4% and the median held flat at $525,000. New listings rose 7.6% for single-family homes and 6% for condos. MAR's 2026 president, Kristen Keegan, called it "a market moving in two directions."
The listing data on this site's Market Pulse points the same way. Realtor.com's September figures show 13,958 active listings in Massachusetts, 18.1% more than a year ago, with the typical listing spending 45 days on the market, up from 40. In New Hampshire, active listings were up 4.7% and the typical time on market stretched to 59 days from 47.
Prices have not turned. Zillow's typical home value, as of August 31, was up 2.4% over the year in Lawrence ($513,746), 2.1% in Methuen ($623,220) and 2.9% in Salem, NH ($609,045). So far, higher rates are showing up in how long homes take to sell and in how much room there is to negotiate, more than in price.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research.
What this means for buyers
- Refresh the numbers first. Rerun your pre-approval at today's rate, decide the monthly payment you are comfortable with, and let that set the price range.
- Use the extra inventory. More homes on the market and longer market times mean more sellers open to an inspection contingency, a workable closing date or a credit.
- Compare a credit with a price cut. A seller credit toward closing costs or a rate buydown can lower your monthly payment more than the same dollars off the price. Ask your lender to show you both side by side.
- Know your lock. Ask how long your rate lock lasts, what an extension costs, and whether a float-down option is available.
What this means for sellers
- Price for the payment buyers see. Buyers shop by monthly payment, and at 7.40% the same budget reaches a lower price than it did in the summer.
- Plan for a longer timeline. With time on market lengthening in both states, build a few extra weeks into your plans, especially if you are buying your next home at the same time (here are four ways to sell and buy at once).
- Consider a credit before a price cut. A credit toward the buyer's rate or closing costs can do more for their payment than a price cut of the same size, and your list price stays where it is.
- Single-family and condo are different markets right now. If you own a condo, the September numbers argue for careful pricing and strong presentation from the first day on the market.
Rates set the budget. Inventory sets the leverage. This fall, buyers have a little more of the second.
The Market Pulse on the home page and on every town page shows the latest rate and your town's numbers. If you want the math for your own situation, send me the home or the town you are looking at and I will run it with you.
Questions people are asking
Are mortgage rates going to come down soon?
No one can say for certain. Freddie Mac's 30-year average rose every week from late August to 7.40% on October 8 and held there on October 15. Decide on the payment that works for you today; refinancing later is possible if rates fall, but it is not guaranteed and it has costs.
How much more is a mortgage payment at 7.4% than a year ago?
On a $400,000 loan, principal and interest is about $2,770 a month at 7.40%, compared with about $2,468 at last year's 6.27%: roughly $301 more, before taxes and insurance.
Is now a good time to buy in the Merrimack Valley or Southern New Hampshire?
It depends on your payment and your plans. Massachusetts had 18.1% more active listings in September than a year earlier, and homes are taking longer to sell in both states, which gives buyers more room to negotiate. Prices are still edging up, so waiting for a lower price is not a sure thing either.
As a seller, should I cut my price or offer a credit?
Often a credit toward the buyer's closing costs or a rate buydown helps their monthly payment more than a price cut of the same size, and your list price stays the same. The right answer depends on your home and your buyer, so we run both before deciding.
Have a question about your situation?
Reply is personal, usually the same day. Or run the numbers yourself in the toolkit.
This note is general information, not legal, tax or financial advice, and not an appraisal or loan approval. Every situation is different — let's talk about yours.
